Black Friday / Cyber Monday 2008 what will happen online?

Here it is November 28, 2008, Black Friday.

A few days ago (11/6/08) Internet Retailer released the results of their Holiday Sales Retailer survey.

According the survey, retailers are putting on an optimistic game face with 81.1% believing that their holiday Internet sales will grow year over year.

The hope is that during uncertain economic times the Internet will be somewhat insulated relative to offline channels. This is based on the assumption that consumers will shop online in greater numbers than before and be looking to the Web for bargains.

I think they have a point, but severe financial storms can sink most (though not all) retail ships.

Here’s how the numbers broke out:

Of the 220 web-only retailers, chain retailers, catalogers and consumer brand manufacturers surveyed:

• 23.9% predict their online sales will grow 5% or less
• 18.3% say 5.1% to 10%
• 13.3% say 10.1% to 15%
• 11% say 15.1% to 20%
• 6% say 20.1% to 30%
• 1.8% say 30.1% to 40%
• 1.8% say 40.1% to 50%
• 5% say more than 50%.

On the other side

• 4.1% of believe their online sales will decline 5% or less
• 6.4% say 5.1% to 10%
• 8.3% say more than 10%

Who will get it right? The retail optimists, pessimists or some sort of middle of the road marketing pragmatist?

We’ll soon find out. Today will be a good leading indicator as we ‘formally’ launch the Holiday 2008 retail season

Comments? What do you think is going to happen this season? Let your Holiday 2008 predictions be known!